Division Wrap-ups, and LCS Predictions

You know that you spend too much time playing HBD when you're sitting at a wedding in Texas, and you're thinking less about the bride's tits (which were exquisite, fyi), and more about how your AA team is doing in the BPF world (they won the World Series, in case you were wondering) and how you hope domi's team blows it (which they did, in case you weren't paying attention).  And then before you even unpack your bags after getting home, you focus on getting your minor leagues up to par, since they have been neglected for three or four days.  I might need an intervention.

After a slight upset of #4 seed KC, Montreal got beat down in their series with New York, 3 games to 1.  It did not start well for NY, as their starting pitcher got knocked out in the first game, as the Yanks lost to open the series.  But they eventually got their shit together, winning three in a row, with the final two wins coming via some late-inning heroics.  Also in the AL, Milwaukee put a hurting on Syracuse in the first two games, outscoring the ITK's 18-2.  Syracuse tried to make it interesting with a bottom-of-the-9th win in game 3, but the Ueckers rattled off another 11 runs in game 4, putting a nail in 'Cuse's coffin.

With #1 playing #2, we should get a good series.  New York's pitching and defense versus Milwaukee's high powered offense.  Or is it Milwaukee's pitching and defense versus New York's high powered offense?  I get that mixed up sometimes, since both squads were quite prolific in every facet of the game this season.  Number two and number three in team ERA in the AL, numbers one and two in OPS, numbers one and three in HR's and RBI's, and numbers one and three in team fielding %, it's tough to tell these two teams apart.  Maybe Milwaukee is a little bit younger.  And this is their first playoff appearance, while New York has won their division 8 years in a row, and has two titles to their name.  Wow, did that just sway my prediction?  It might have.  I was hoping to find out that maybe NY swept their season series against Milwaukee, but no, it was a wash, 5-5.  I'll probably regret it, but I'm going to pick the kids.  The young Milwaukee Uecker's are going to take the series in 6 games for their first ALCS.

Meanwhile, over in the NL, it appears that Jackson manhandled Jacksonville, winning their series 3-0.  But it took a bottom-of-the-10th RBI to win game 1, and a 5-spot in the 9th inning to win game 3.  Let's not talk about game 2.  But the bookends of the series could have gone the other way.  On the other side of the bracket was Indy versus Hartford, which turned into one hell of a series.  All three of Indy's wins were in extra innings.  Ouch.  That's a punch in the gut if I've ever seen one.

So just like the AL, we get #1 versus #2.  As noted in a previous blog, the NL was super close this season, and therefore the team stats were a bit more spread out.  These two teams can't lay claim to the top spots in every category in the NL like their AL counterparts can, because there were a lot of good teams in the NL this season.  So statistically, they don't look like the best of the best in the NL, but goddamn if they're not the top two teams in the league, and are going to put together a hell of a series.  This is the third NLCS appearance for both Indy and Jackson.  And I'm torn on who to pick.  Jackson had a slight edge in the season series.  Neither team is exceptionally old.  Let's keep it consistent and go with the #2 seed over here also.  But in seven games.  Sorry to jinx you, Mr Gargle.

First Round Predictions

AL #4 Kansas City vs AL #5 Montreal -- Montreal spent a little more than $21M in payroll this year, while KC spent over $111M, which I believe is more than the entire city of KC is worth. With their age and salaries, KC is the Diane Lane of BPF, while Montreal is Megan Fox. And I'm just now realizing what a horrible analogy this is, because while you want Fox for the long-term, Lane could perform well in a short series. Whatever, I'm taking the hot, young chick. The Montreal Foxes in 4 games.

AL #3 Vancouver vs AL #6 Syracuse -- 103 wins and $62M in payroll got Vancouver the number three seed. That's rough. Vancouver is way too strong for Syracuse, and the series probably won't be that close. But I really hope it goes to a fifth game, where it's tied in the bottom of the 9th, and Vancouver scores the winning run when Spahn commits his 8th error of the series on a routine grounder to short. In reality, I think Vancouver sweeps. And then we get to look forward to domi's annual "I'm not coming back, but I might come back, but it depends...."

NL #4 Iowa City vs NL #5 Jacksonville -- We have a team in Iowa City? Get the fuck out of here. Division winner with a couple of 100+ RBI studs and two or three SP's who could be the difference makers in this short series, don't sleep on Iowa City. Wait. Crap. They're playing Jacksonville, who has been to the NLCS each of the last three seasons, with a WS win in Season 6. And they have some really good pitching. And their hitting ain't bad. Ever heard of Julius Neal? What about the ageless Rick Halama? Sorry Iowa, you're fucked. Jacksonville wins in 4.

NL #3 Oakland vs NL #6 Hartford -- On January 6th, tomhighway said "nobody has enough on their team to get all 5 of my SP's regardless of how crappy they are doing right at this time :) I'll just stick it out.. I will win the division." At the time, he was near the bottom of the division, and I was reeeeeally hoping he would miss out on the playoffs, so I could post that quote in the world chat and rub his face in it. Instead, I'm posting it on the blog to show that he managed to pull it out. In the final ten games of the season, Oakland went 5-5 while Colorado only managed a 3-7 record, giving Oak a one game lead. One of the closest division races BPF has had in a while. Meanwhile, Colorado missed out on a wild card spot to Hartford, as the Insurance Men got the final spot on a tie-breaker. Talk about a hectic final week in the NL, as every division was decided by fewer than five games. For Hartford, I like Lee and Aguilera and Arias. For Oakland, I like Hall and Hornby and Ramirez and Greenberg and Wayne and....how did these guys only win 90 games with their $120M payroll and talent? Gotta take Oakland here, but if one series goes to five games, it might be this one.

Season 8 Playoff Picture

20 games left in the regular season, and it's pretty obvious who is out of the playoff hunt, but not so obvious who is definitely in it. In the highly superior NL, Buffalo, Minnesota, Durham, Louisville, New Orleans, Las Vegas, and Albuquerque are all pretty much out of it. At the other end of the spectrum, three out of the four divisions are still exceptionally close.

In the North, Cincy has a two game lead on Iowa City, with both teams playing well right now, and the "loser" of the division having a good shot at a Wild Card slot.

In the East, Hartford is only two games behind Indianapolis, and again, both teams have a good shot at making the playoffs. With their monstrous budget, I think Indy is hoping for more than just a WC slot.

Down in the dirty South, Jacksonville needs a minor miracle to overcome Jackson's seven game lead. They have made up four games recently, but pulling out another seven is going to be rough. Whoever wins the division will get a bye and probably the number one seed.

In the NL West, Colorado is holding a slim two game lead over Oakland. If the playoffs started today, Colorado would be the number three seed, and Oakland would be out of the playoffs, one game behind the second WC. Yeah. It's tight in the NL.

The AL is a bit of a different story, as a number of teams have punted, with only a handful still looking at the playoffs. Burlington, Detroit, Trenton, Chicago, Austin, Scottsdale, and San Francisco are basically out of it, and starting to make vacation plans for the fall.

In the North, despite nearly a dozen trades this season, some of which were criticized, Milwaukee has a 12 game lead and is in the hunt for the number two seed and first round bye. Montreal is hoping for a WC slot, and currently has one in their sights.

In the East, New York has been beating down the rest of the division with a 17-4 record right now. Unless they play a bunch of AA/AAA scrubs to finish the season, they should have the number one seed wrapped up. Syracuse has their eyes on a WC spot, and is currently three games behind Montreal, but tied with Honolulu.

The South is the only division that hasn't been decided, as KC has a two game lead over Memphis, and seven games over Richmond. Austin is only nine games out, but that's probably too much at this point in the season. Who comes out of this division is anyone's guess. KC is 7-14 against the division this season, while Memphis and Richmond are both 12-9. If I had to guess.....eh, I'm not going to guess.

Out in the West, Vancouver has things very much in control, currently sitting 13 games ahead of the aforementioned Honolulu, and eyeballing that number two seed. Honolulu is tied with Syracuse for the second WC slot.

I Have A Dream

When I first started playing HBD, I joined the Continental League, not a public world. I knew nothing about HBD, and I don't recall whether I was given the password to join that world, or if the world hadn't re-upped its privacy, and was public for a period of time. Either way, there were a number of experienced owners in the world, and it had a couple of seasons under its belt. Today, I wouldn't join that world even if someone gave me a GC (yes domi, that is meant to offend you), but at the time I felt like I was hot shit for joining that world, and I thought it was a big deal. Does anyone feel like that when they join a world anymore? Most worlds are dying to get you to join. You only have five seasons of experience and have never finished a season above a .500 record? Come on in!! You can count on one hand how many worlds are "elite" in the sense that they make a list of owners, and have such low turnover that there really is a waiting list to get in. Wouldn't it be great if every world was like that?

I have a dream, where HBD does not have so many worlds with such high turnover. An HBD where we only have maybe 75 private worlds, with a half dozen public worlds. An HBD where even a "crappy" private world has a list of owners waiting to get in, because the demand is greater than the supply. An HBD where you must spend time cutting your teeth in a public world before anyone will let you join their precious private world. An HBD where nobody with more than 10 seasons is allowed to play in a public world. I have a dream. An HBD where a world's rollover time is based entirely on how long the current members want to spend critiquing the potential new owners. An HBD where worlds can look at an owner's history and say "you've never been in a world for more than two seasons, we don't want you, we have better options." An HBD that forces owners to stay in for the long-haul, or worry about their reputations being tarnished. I have a dream.

I just don't have a way to pull it off.

Saving Worlds

I'm not sure if it was MikeT23 who came up with the idea of "saving worlds," but I'm sure he would take credit for it no matter whose idea it was originally. And on the surface, the idea is a decent one, where quality owners go into a world that has issues, and try to bring it back to being even. Whether the world has had problems with multiple one-and-done owners, or veteran owners who trade rape new owners, or alias problems, etc etc. The veteran owners who come into the world think that if they spend a couple of seasons in the world, it will be a better place. Maybe they're right, maybe they're wrong, but my question is: who cares?

I currently care about six worlds. The other 100+ worlds? Fuck 'em. When I see a thread in the forums with a title like "New Guys world is corrupt," or "The Death of World Foxx," I so don't care. Why should I care about public worlds that are extremely lopsided, and that have had unfair play for multiple seasons, but are only now getting reported? How does that impact me? The big story in the Foxx world is that one owner has been acquiring the top draft picks from previous seasons, while sending very little back to the other team. If this was happening in S10, why is it only now being reported at the start of S15? And if this guy really has something like 50 of the top 100 prospects in the world.....what are a dozen veteran owners going to do to fix the world? It will take ten seasons to swing the pedulum back to the middle. All so you can "save" a public world? Wouldn't it be easier if they just blew up the world and started from scratch? And with all of the talk about how there are too many worlds to begin with, wouldn't we be better off with some bad worlds either going away or being merged with others?

A quick look at the classifieds section in the forums, and the first ten private worlds that have a clear number of openings in them, I count about 30 slots. 30!! That's an entire world! Wouldn't HBD be better off imploding the Foxx world, or New Guys, and having all of those owners take up teams in the various private worlds that are looking for owners? Yes yes yes, I know WIS has said they won't blow up public worlds. So if that's not going to happen, why don't those dozen veteran owners join quality private worlds, instead of trying to "save" a world like Foxx? Don't you think Happy Jack or Alexander or Robert E McCabe would love to have some of those experienced owners join them?

It's just baffling to me how there can be so much talk about a recession, and nobody has money to spend on this game, and there are quality worlds that take two or three weeks to fill....and then one person says "let's save this world," and a dozen guys raise their hands.