Saturday, March 19, 2011

This Season Is Dedicated To...




CANDICE SWANEPOEL

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Recap of my pre-season predictions

I've honestly never gone back and looked at how my predictions faired.  But reading camden's post this evening, I decided to take a gander at what little I know about this game.

Team/Prediction/Actual/Difference

Albuquerque/94-68/95-67/+1
Salem/99-63/99-63/I'm a genius
Las Vegas/90-72/83-79/-7
Colorado/75-87/92-70/+15
*Maybe the most competitive and tight division in the world.  Three squads made the playoffs.  Fourth would have been one game out in the NL South.

Jacksonville/88-74/75-87/-13
El Paso/78-84/84-78/+6
Jackson/75-87/79-83/+4
New Orleans/80-82/82-80/+2
*I called this the "toughest division in the entire world."  A pretty close division, but not the "toughest."

St Louis/81-81/91-71/+10
Durham/80-82/92-70/+12
Baltimore/65-97/59-103/-6 I wish I had been right.
Hartford/55-107/57-105/+2
*Maybe the most tarded up division in the world.  I don't care if Durham ends up winning the WS.

Philadelphia/78-84/79-83/+1
Iowa City/88-74/77-85/-11
Helena/84-78/87-75/+3
Cincinnati/75-87/71-91/-4
*Like the NL South, a very boring division.  Which might explain why I was so close on three of the four.

From The Desk of the Beloved Commish

With the season nearly over, and Durham taking a huge first step to making BPF history with the biggest WS upset, I figure it's a good time to give a State Of The BPF Address.

The State Of The BPF is strong. Once again the NL proved to be the more competitive league. Consistent ownership for several seasons in the NL has produced a league of incredible balance. Though not blessed with the most vocal owners (nj does his best to make up for that, and I often find the NL the less verbose of the two leagues in most worlds), the senior circuit once again is also out classing the AL in re-upmanship. The AL is chock a block with Last-Minute-Larrys (myself included). If an Durham wins the WS, the AL should feel much shame.

To be honest I don't spend much time seeing what's going on in the NL, so I can't comment much on the teams. I have a couple informants who clue me in to anything seemingly, or actually, untoward. But I don't know really have a clue where teams finished, but I can comment on the AL with much more precision.

Right now I'm going to take this chance to review my predictions, so here we go:

Milwaukee
Actual/Predicted/Difference
105-57/110-52/-5

Montreal
107-55/89-73/+18 (I blame the drugs)

Florida
55-107/56-106/-1 (I can spot true crap)

Portland
66-96/72-90/-4

Chicago
104-58/100-62/+4

Trenton
84-78/81-81/+3

New York
78-84/70-92/+8

Burlington
74-88/98-64/-24 (Just the opposite of the season before where I grossly under predicted, so it balances out and makes me right for both seasons!)

Houston
88-74/63-99/+25 (Wow)

Richmond
82-80/94-68/-12

Kansas City
66-96/87-75/-21 (Fags are fickle)

Tampa Bay
64-98/63-99/+1

Vancouver
107-55/"more wins than losses, quick playoff exit"/Dingdingdingdingding.

Honolulu
94-68/81-81/+13 (Congrats shiish, good job)

Scottsdale
62-100/59-103/+3 (After a few seasons of this, would you believe the minors are stacked?)

Salt Lake City
54-108/69-93/-15

Looks like I have established my Senate. The scope of this panel will reviewing owners and/or teams that violate world rules, and admissability of potential new owners. I'm going to go ahead and put in the sub 40 mil payroll/60 minimum wins rule. So next season there better not be teams with marginal NL talent and decent FAs still on the market. I don't sweat records as much as some 9as long as it's not ridiculous), but owners are expected to field the best team possible. I'm not bothered whther Joe Blow has 20 mil more in me in prospect, but it does bother me if he's playing AAers instead of spending a bit more for a legitimate ML worthy FA.I'm fine with rebuilding, I totally agree with the concept and think it's ridiculous to get a stud FA if it won't do much more than give you a couple more wins. I'm not asking teams to spend, spend, spend, but don't play for the first pick. I like that this world allows a bit more reign in how you run your team, but I sometimes see it being abused. This rule should only be an issue to owners that are trying to lose. If the numbers are close the Senate will be convened. As an appeasement to those who favour a minimum win rule, any team winning less than 50 games will result in a Senate review. You might think 50 is too low, maybe so, but with a 43 win team in my history (and I wasn't trying to lose at all) I know it's not always a matter of intention but a mattor or combination of ineptitude and/or franchise damage by previous ownership.

That's it for now. Thanks for another successful season of BPF.

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Yay the World Series is Here!

About fucking time.  Who is crossing their fingers that we get a quick four game sweep, so we can move on to next season?  Oh, just me?  Liars.  Well it's not the most typical WS.  A #5 seed with 105 wins versus a #2 seed with 92 regular season wins.  Go figure.  The AL is just 'tarded up, with six teams that lost 95+ games, compared to the NL's two teams that lost 95+ games.  The NL didn't have a single team win 100 games (although Salem got close with 99, and four others had 90+), while the AL had four teams with 100+ wins, with the next closest being 94 wins, and then only three more that had .500+ records.  Yes, I'm having fun manipulating numbers. 

Durham finished the regular season tied for second in batting average, second in runs, with a team OPS of .800 that was good for fourth in the ML.  A team ERA of just under 4.00 was easily the best the franchise has had in its history.  Bottom ten in defense this year, they'd better hope their pitchers can get a lot of strikeouts.  Clearly their top player this season has been Flash, sporting 34 HR's, 103 RBI's, and 105 runs in his first season with the squad.  Bubba Coles was another big pickup for them, as he added even more firepower to their hitter-friendly ballpark.  Crane, Diaz and Kelley rounded out their list of hitters with 25+ HR's this season.

Like Flash, Edgar Frias is a player who came to Durham via Milwaukee.  And like Flash, he was a team leader this season with his 18 wins and 3.08 ERA.  Young Pat Wilson started 33 games, while old Rickey Kidd also logged 33 starts.  Rickey was the only regular starter with an ERA over 4.00 this season.  If the Bulls can keep the ball out of their bullpen's hands, they should do okay in this series.  But if a starter can't go quite the full distance, or gets roughed up early......bad news bears. 

Across the way, Milwaukee posted a top 10 batting average this season, and saw similar rankings in every relevant hitting stat across the board.  With guys like Spahn, Perez, Neal and Collins, it's kind of difficult to not have impressive offensive numbers.  And they spread it around, which makes them quite dangerous.  Only Spahn had over 100 RBI's, but if we spot Valentin one RBI, then that gives us Spahn plus five other guys with 75+ RBI's this season.  Neal had 55 in just 66 games with the team.  Combine that with his stats from Jacksonville, and he had 42 HR's and 103 RBI's this year. 

Up on the mound, the entire staff combined for a 3.57 ERA, after 3.66 last season and 3.86 in S10.  Reynolds and Drew both started 32 games and had sub 3.00 ERA's, while winning 17 and 18 games, respectively.  Hamilton and Diaz will go into the bullpen, while Valenzuela (11-2, 2.15 ERA) will be the #3 ahead of Matthews (11-9, 3.76 ERA in his first ML season).  Their bullpen isn't quite as bad as the situation over in Durham, but they took their lumps this season as well.  Having Crosby out certainly does not help matters.  Appearing as if they will run a 4-man rotation tells me that the Ueckers plan to push the limits of each starter, and hope they can get enough rest between starts.  It will be interesting. 

Both teams will hope their SP's can pitch out of their minds for 7 or 8 innings, and then cross their fingers that the offense gave the bullpen enough of a lead.  Offensively, these two teams are almost a wash, but Milwaukee has the edge in the pitching category, and a slight edge in defense as well. 

Prediction: Milwaukee wins in 6, and we ban everyone from trading their top players to Milwaukee for the next five seasons.

Friday, March 4, 2011

The hazards of my profession.

Saturday, February 19, 2011

andersaa saw this...well sort of

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Vanessa Hudgens

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

The NL South - What a bunch of tards

I know, I know, we're only about 50 games into the season, it's early.  But what the hell is going on in the NL South?  Everyone is below .500!!  The computer thinks Jackson might get up to around 80 wins by the end of the season, which would make them the Seattle Seahawks of BPF: below .500, but making the playoffs. 

Now this is almost expected from New Orleans.  Other than their 83 win season and division title back in S10, they've been a sub .500 squad since....forever.  And Louisville/El Paso had a couple of great seasons in the early days of BPF (WS win in S1, WS appearance in S4), but they've been a yo-yo since then (100 losses in S9, nearly 100 wins in S11).  Jacksonville and Jackson are supposed to be the rocks of that division, having the same ownership since S1.  Combined, they have 4 sub .500 seasons out of 22 seasons played, but right now they're on pace to make that 6 out of 24. 

Meanwhile, you look at divisions like the NL North and the NL West, where each are on pace to have three of their four teams finish above .500, which isn't a foreign concept since all eight squads finished above .500 in S10.  In the NL East.....well, let's not talk about those guys.  A clear case of haves and have nots, Durham and St Louis are on pace for around 100 wins, while Baltimore and Hartford are in the hunt for a top 5 draft pick next season. 

Looking at the last four seasons in the NL, here is the number of teams below .500 each season:
S8 - 6 (2 below .400) (0 above .600)
S9 - 7 (2 below .400) (0 above .600)
S10 - 5 (0 below .400) (0 above .600)
S11 - 9 (1 below .400) (2 above .600)
Clearly, S10 was our Season of Parity, and then it quickly got turned upside down in S11 when we had a record number of teams playing sub-par baseball and our first .600+ seasons since S7.  Right now we're on pace for 7 teams below .500, and possibly 3 teams above .600 for the first time since S4.  But what does it mean? 

I really hoped I would see some sort of trend.  Maybe the teams with the worst records are only spending $40M on payroll or something.  Maybe the teams with the best records are flush with 80+ rated guys.  But Philly is spending $120M on payroll, and they're expected to get 70 wins.  Cincy is in first place in the NL North, and they don't have a single guy rated above 78 overall.  But the cream of the crop right now are St Louis and Durham, with StL spending $118M on payroll and having 6 guys rated 80+ overall, and Durham is around $95M in payroll with 5 guys rated 80+ overall.  Those two teams have more 80+ guys than the entire NL South combined, and that might be our problem.  Hell, my team alone has nearly the same number of 80+ guys as the NL South.  I know, it's all cyclical, and the teams with all of the talent at the ML level had to give up some prospects in order to get that talent, and those prospects will beat down my team in a few years.  A lot of teams have a lot of talent in their minors right now.  But for now, the NL isn't the league of parity that it was a couple of seasons ago, we are very much a league of haves and have nots. 

Franchise Performance Rankings

Hey Guys!
I just wasted a whole bunch of time coming up with a rankings system kind of like power rankings, but I looked at team performances by actual player stats. I'd tell you my formula, but then the secret would be out. Anyhoo, we've got some very strong teams and some real piles of crap, which will be leading to my next post sometime soon. Have a nice day y'all.


1. Chicago 178
2. Milwaukee 166
3. Durham 155
4. Vancouver 148
5. St. Louis 139
6. Montreal 137
7. Salem 136
8. Kansas city 132
9. Richmond 128
10. Helena 124
11. Cincinnati 116
12. Albuequerque115
13. Colorado 113
14. Honolulu 96
15. Houston 96
16. Las Vegas 95
17. Trenton 90
18. Iowa City 84
19. New York 83
20. Jackson 81
21. Burlington 78
22. SLC 77
23. Scottsdale 75
24. Philadelphia72
25. Portland 71
26. Jacksonville68
27. New Orleans 64
28. El Paso 62
29. Baltimore 58
30. Tampa Bay 49
31. Harford 39
32. Tacoma 36

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Top 10 Prospects

I didn't want to make this all about pitchers, but wow, there are some top-notch pitching prospects in this world.  And unless I wanted to search through every roster of every team, looking for the LF prospect with the best splits, I had to take the easy route by just looking at the top 10-15 draftees from the last few seasons, along with the IFA's who pulled down the biggest bonuses.  So without further ado, here are your top ten prospects in BPF.

#10 - Vladimir Vazquez (SP - Jackson)
Drafted #5 overall in Season 9, Vlad has only lost 9 games in 74 starts during his time in the minors.  Originally drafted by Chicago, Vlad was traded to Jackson in S10, and will probably get moved to the ML roster towards the end of S13, or he could be the opening day starter for Jackson in S14.  An injury earlier this season slowed his progress a little bit, but he already has the stuff to play at the ML level if the Generals needed him to, and we see him making even more progress over the next season plus.

#9 - Vic Camacho (SP - Milwaukee)
Costing Durham $15.4M in S11, Vic was shipped off to Milwaukee this season in one of the biggest trades in BPF history.  Vic is still a long ways off from reaching his potential, but he's pitching at the AAA level anyway.  My biggest complaint about this guy, and the reason he isn't higher up this list, is his stamina ratings and his splits.  In AAA this season, he has yet to get beyond the 6th inning.  Will his stamina improve to a point where he could ever go the distance?  It doesn't look likely.  But while he's in the game, he's going to be fantastic.

#8 - Stuart Taylor (3B - Helena)
Our first position player to make the list, Stu was the #1 overall pick in the S9 draft, and is currently banging around at the AAA level for Helena.  What I love about Stu is that he's multi-dimensional.  Once he picks up a few more points in his range and glove, he'll be able to play everything but SS and CF and C.  Most likely he'll end up at 3B, where he will hit for power and average, although his OBP might be less than stellar.  He also has some decent legs on him, and could steal 25-30 bases each season.  He's not the best #1 draft pick this world has ever had, but he's damn good.

#7 - R.J. Arredondo (SP - Milwaukee)
"Fuck you Milwaukee."  That's what most of the world said when the Ueckers managed to land both Camacho and Arredondo.  Originally signed by Chicago for $15.9M back in S9, RJ logged a little over 200 innings for Chicago before coming to Milwaukee.  At the ripe age of 21, he has already thrown 500+ innings in the minors, and could make some noise at the ML level if Milwaukee needed him.  I think he'll spend the rest of this season, and probably half of (if not all of) S13 playing AAA ball for Milwaukee before they bring him up.  He still has some growing to do, and looks to be a force with his change up.

#6 - Harold Williams (2B/CF - El Paso)
I told you I wasn't going to let it be all pitchers.  Harold was the #3 overall pick in S10 for Charlotte, before they moved to El Paso.  Harold is what we like to call "the complete package."  He's going to be an everyday guy for El Paso, playing at either CF or 2B, all while batting .300+ and staying healthy.  If he was faster, I'd say he's your dream lead-off guy. 

#5 - Gerardo Callaspo (SP - Scottsdale)
Only costing $11.7M for Scottsdale back in S10, Callaspo has since gone 28-9 in 59 starts in the minors.  Once he gets through AAA next season, he's going to be a threat to throw a CG every time he gets on the mound.  Power and control, with two great pitches, his only "down side" is that vR split.  But if it can get up to that 70-75 range, he has Cy Young written all over him.

#4 - Ivan Barcelo (SP - Tacoma)
Maybe it's because he reminds me so much of Rico Rivera, but Ivan gives me a boner.  He cost Tacoma a whopping $30M this season, so I hope he gives them a boner too.  He's only 18, so he has a long way to go, but it looks like he will have great numbers almost across the whole board, with the obvious exception of that ever-important vR split.  Damn lefties.  If you could swap his vR and his vL splits, I'd declare him the best prospect this world has ever seen. 

#3 - Jolbert Santana (2B - SLC)
Currently being 81 overall, he could make an impact at the ML level for a lot of teams.  And with his current franchise sporting a 19-31 record at the ML level, I think they could be one of those teams that he could make an impact for.  But they don't want to rush Santana, who originally cost $25.4M to sign back in S9.  What's really interesting about Santana is that he was signed by kemosabe11 when he was running the Austin Argonauts.  That team moved to Houston when they were taken over by joepatrick23 in S11.  kemosabe11 came back into the fold with SLC, and loved Santana so much, he traded for him.  A 2B with wheels and a great bat, I can see why he was so popular in Austin, and now SLC.  When he gets to the ML level, he'll be a lead-off guy who scores 125 runs while also hitting 30 HR's and stealing 30 bases. 

#2 - Dan Hernandez (SP - Helena)
The #8 pick in S9's draft, Dan has already logged 600 innings in the minors, so I'm moderately worried that he might be near his max already.  Can he get another 5+ points in control and/or his splits?  Maybe.  Hindsight is always 20/20, but he might have been better off taking a more typical route in the minors, spending some time at LoA/HiA instead of jumping straight from Rookie ball to AA.  Crap.  I suddenly don't feel so good about my #2 pick.  Nobody's reading this, right?

#1 - Shep Robinson (SP - Houston)
Drafted fourth overall in S9, Shep is quickly approaching 500 innings in the minors, and followed an identical path as Dan (Rookie, AA, then two consecutive seasons at AAA).  Also like Dan, Shep could be a decent ML pitcher right now, but Houston is hoping he has another 5-10 points in him.  His biggest issue right now, and I really don't understand what's going on, is the lack of progression in his stamina rating.  61 in S10, 64 in S11, and now 66 in S12.  His makeup is off the charts, so why is he not progressing more in this category?  Is my projection of 82 really that far off?  Everything else is progressing really well, but that stamina is just stuck.  Oh well.  He's still a stud.