Don't expect much here. It's 930am, and I'm trying to knock this out before lunch. If I just mention your team, you should be happy.
The Contenders:
Milwaukee, Montreal, Scottsdale, Florida, and Houston. Last year Milwaukee was the odd man out in the Division Championships, having been knocked out in the first round. Chicago snuck into the playoffs by winning their division, but they're not quite in the same league as these five right now.
Montreal is spending more money this season than the franchise has spent on players since way back in S3. Almost no money in prospect for the second year in a row, mira is finally happy with his young players and is going to let other teams get some IFA's. No big time FA signings this season, but when you have 9 players in the majors with an overall of 80+, and a stud pitcher in waiting down in AA, there's no need to spend excess money on old guys. Only three guys on the entire ML roster are 30 or older. Nine guys are 25 or younger. Glad I'm in the NL. After 97 wins, 107, 100, and then 99 last season, which was preceded by 93 losses, 96, 109, 99, and 100, Scottsdale is starting to run into the arbitration and FA cycles that come along with high draft picks and expensive IFA's. The 12 best guys on the ML roster, only one is making the league minimum, while six are on long-term contracts, and the other five are in various stages of arbitration. Almost $80M in salary this year, it's only going to go up from here. Milwaukee has been pretty consistently between $80-100M in salary over the last 9 seasons, so they are no stranger to big budgets.
Billy Black was their big signing this winter, and he's already 3-0 with a sub 2.00 ERA. The big spenders in this group are Florida ($128M) and Houston ($109M), but it's the third year in a row at $100M+ for each of them, so no biggie. Florida brought in
Jon Porter, with maybe the cheapest deal ever for a Type A free agent, while Houston made no big signings. It's really going to be a dog fight amongst these five teams. I think Florida might be the odd man out this year, who will get bounced. Houston and Montreal have gotten off to slow starts, but it's hard to pick against either of them, while Scottsdale and Milwaukee are cruising already. Assuming they don't have to play each other early in the playoffs, I think it'll be Milwaukee and Montreal in the ALCS.
The Pretenders:
Chicago, Minnesota, Vancouver, Fargo, Salt Lake City, and Columbus. Assuming they win their division, Chicago is the "best" among this group, since they'll make the playoffs. But getting knocked out in the opening round by someone like Florida or Houston, that's what is keeping them in this section. One Type B signing this winter, with no trades.....if you're not moving forward, you're moving backwards. The other five squads are all playing just a hair over .500 ball so far, which is about right. Minnesota signed a Type B, Columbus picked up two of those, and Salt Lake City made the biggest signing of this group by picking up a 38yo Type A. Fargo, Minnesota and Chicago win the awards for biggest waste of salary money while playing .500 ball. Vancouver and SLC win the early award for doing the most with the least, as they combine for $60M in salary, and are a combined 26-22 so far. mira, your secret on building a franchise is out. Columbus and jmarkey already win the award for Most Improved. Instead of slashing salary and playing .300 ball this season, he's throwing money at the problem and is above .500 already. devon let them get older and older and older, and then bailed when they hit 100 losses. Well done already, jmarkey.
They Are Dead To Me:
Memphis, Philly, Louisville, Richmond, Honolulu. Memphis really shouldn't be in this list, but I'm not going to go back and delete everything I've already typed. And having a 5-6-5 split among these three groups is much clearner than 5-7-4. Being 16-8 already, the Memphis season is promising. But history is against them, as they have been sub .500 since S12. No huge FA signings, but a shit ton of trades. I'm not going to break down each trade, but the majority end with the Elvi getting ML players, which can only be a good thing when you figure the last two seasons were 94 and 93 losses. I'm cautiously optimistic that sergei is going to make me eat my words by putting them in this group, and he's going to have his boys fighting for a wild card slot. Maybe. Philly is right at .500 so far, but with 111 losses last year, and 95 and 92 the two seasons before that, they will certainly regress to the mean. A couple of Type B signings might help them keep their heads above that 100 loss mark, but that's about it. If they can avoid a top three draft pick, it's a win for jshirley in this first season. Maybe the award for "what are they spending their money on" goes to Honolulu, as they are sitting on $81M in salary, with $90M budgeted, and a 7-17 record so far. A few good gloves, a couple of average hitters, but the pitching staff is going to struggle, and they're probably looking at a top 3 draft pick. Richmond might give them a run for their money though. Five really solid seasons in a row, followed by one disaster, and now two consistently average seasons in a row, I thought initially that they would at least be looking at another average season. Not a ton of money put into salary (better hope you don't need to promote anyone, unless you want to dip into that $17M in prospect), and very few transactions this winter, and a Type A leaving them for greener pastures. Not good. And then there is Louisville. They actually signed the Type A that left Richmond (
Felipe Tavarez), and also picked up
Jorel Williams from the FA pile. You'd think that would be a huge pick-me-up for that squad. But they're 5-19 at the time of this writing. Defensively, they're in trouble. Offensively, they're not horrible. Pitching.....ugh.